[Salon] Adding Up the House Reconciliation Bill

May 14, 2025

The developing House reconciliation bill is shaping up to add roughly $3.3 trillion to the debt through Fiscal Year (FY) 2034 and is setting the stage for more than $5.2 trillion of additional debt if policymakers ultimately extend temporary provisions.

Although the reconciliation bill has yet to be officially scored in full and not all components have passed out of committee, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have fully or partially scored several committee recommendations. Between these scores and other available information, we estimate that by 2034 the House reconciliation bill would:

Increase debt by $3.3 trillion, or $5.2 trillion if made permanent

Increase annual deficits to $2.9 trillion (6.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product), or $3.3 trillion (7.8 percent of GDP) if made permanent

Increase yearly interest costs to $1.8 trillion (4.2 percent of GDP), or $1.9 trillion (4.4 percent of GDP) if made permanent

Increase debt to 125 percent of GDP, or 129 percent of GDP if made permanent

Based on available scores, we estimate the reconciliation bill as written would boost total deficits through FY 2034 by roughly $3.3 trillion – with $4.1 trillion of new borrowing from committees with deficit-increasing instructions partially offset by nearly $1.5 trillion of deficit reduction from the other committees (after adjusting for likely interactions), combined with about $570 billion of interest costs. If made permanent, we estimate the bill would add about $5.2 trillion to deficits through 2034.

The bill would have the largest impact on the deficit in 2027 as written, adding roughly $600 billion (1.8 percent of GDP) to the deficit. Beyond that, offsets would begin to phase in, various tax cuts would expire (a gimmick used to reduce the official cost of the bill), and one-time spending boosts would begin to fade. By 2034, we estimate the bill’s deficit impact would fall in half to roughly $300 billion (0.7 percent of GDP).

If various temporary tax cuts are extended and higher defense and homeland security spending are continued, the deficit impact would continue to grow. Specifically, we estimate a permanent version of the bill would add roughly $700 billion (1.7 percent of GDP) to the deficit by 2034.

As a result of these deficit increases, total yearly deficits would rise dramatically – from $1.8 trillion in 2024 to $2.9 trillion by 2034 under the bill and $3.3 trillion under a permanent version of the bill. As a share of GDP, yearly deficits would rise to 6.9 percent – or 7.8 percent if the bill were extended permanently.

Interest costs alone would make up a large share of that borrowing. Interest costs would double from nearly $900 billion in 2024 to $1.8 trillion (4.2 percent of GDP) by 2034 under the reconciliation package as written, or to $1.9 trillion (4.4 percent of GDP) if temporary provisions are made permanent. Including dynamic effects – where higher debt boosts interest rates – interest costs would likely exceed $2 trillion per year.

Reconciliation would also boost debt. Under current law, debt is projected to rise from nearly 100 percent of GDP today to 117 percent by 2034. Under the House's proposed package, debt would instead rise to 125 percent of GDP. And if temporary provisions are made permanent, debt would reach 129 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. On a dynamic basis, debt would likely rise further. In dollars, debt would rise to about $53 trillion under the package as written and $55 trillion if it were made permanent.

By 2027, under the reconciliation bill, debt would exceed the previous record of 106 percent of GDP set just after World War II. Assuming the bill's enactment, stabilizing the debt at current levels would require deficit reduction of $11 trillion through 2034 or $13 trillion if temporary provisions are made permanent.

Unfortunately, there is a risk that the bill could get even worse. Already, some members are trying to add to the bill’s costs – and the Senate reconciliation instructions allow for twice as much borrowing as the House’s.

But it’s also not too late to turn reconciliation into a deficit-reduction exercise. The committees have already identified $2.5 trillion of offsets – plenty of money to enact a strategic extension of large parts of the TCJA. Many additional offsets are available to finance additional costs or, preferably, reduce deficit and debt.

With debt projected to exceed its historic record and interest costs already consuming a growing share of the budget, adding trillions to the debt through reconciliation would further weaken our fiscal position and constrain future economic growth. Any new reconciliation package should aim to reduce, not increase, deficits and debt.

Read the analysis.

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 1100 | Washington, DC 20036 US

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